Our betting professional Jones Knows makes his Premier League predictions for the weekend.
Wolves vs West Brom, Saturday 12.30
Can Wolves be trusted to win at 8/15 with Sky Bet?
It’s all gone a bit stale for Nuno Espirito Santo since Raul Jimenez suffered that horrific cranium damage. I obtained my fingers actually burnt by them on Tuesday towards Everton; they performed with out a lot attacking objective because the Toffees have been defensively in management all through. Wolves have misplaced 5 of their final eight Premier League video games and never managed a clear sheet in 11 matches.
There have to be enchancment to come from West Brom, too.
It’s exhausting to get a true deal with on them as Sam Allardyce remains to be figuring out his greatest method when it comes to workforce choice. If he finds it for this fixture then that 8/15 for a home win seems to be very skinny however there are such a lot of unknowns with West Brom it is exhausting to critically put religion in a workforce which might be averaging 4 pictures a sport underneath Allardyce – a league low.
Better worth is discovered within the goalscorer markets. I backed Leander Dendoncker to rating towards Everton as he continues to play in a sophisticated position and is massively missed by the bookmakers. He had 4 pictures in that match however his ending was wayward.
In the absence of Jimenez he supplies the physicality within the field that Wolves require. With them seemingly to see loads of the ball in broad areas on this one, the possibilities of him ending off one among these probabilities stays excessive. Seven of his pictures this season have come through headers, two of these towards Everton, so the 25/1 for him to score a header with Sky Bet is a wager to soar on.
He can rating in a slender residence win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0 (6/1 with Sky Bet)
ALSO LOOK OUT FOR: Leander Dendoncker to rating a header (25/1 with Sky Bet)
Leeds vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm, stay on Sky Sports Premier League (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)
This sport has all of the elements to explode into a sometimes mad Leeds encounter. I’ve completely no sturdy opinion on which manner the sport will go however I’m assured there shall be pictures. So many pictures.
Games involving Leeds have produced essentially the most pictures mixed of any membership within the Premier League. In truth, Marcelo Bielsa’s workforce have featured within the prime 4 matches for complete pictures in a match this season (43 vs Manchester United, 39 vs Aston Villa, 38 vs Everton and 38 vs Tottenham). Also, six of the 9 Premier League video games with 35 or extra pictures this season have concerned Leeds.
No matter who you’re, it’s seemingly you’re going to get dragged into a gung-ho encounter stuffed with incident and probabilities. And Brighton will not give you the chance to resist. Although none of their video games have featured over 27 match pictures this season, Graham Potter’s males rank seventh for many pictures within the Premier League (221) while solely Liverpool have had extra pictures than Leeds (259). They will not be famed for his or her ruthlessness in entrance of objective however Brighton do create probabilities.
An early objective may ship this sport into chaos mode and Sky Bet’s line of the sport to produce 28 or extra pictures at 10/11 looks a steal. Those who like fishing at larger costs also needs to pay attention to the 6/1 for there to be 35 or more shots.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-2 (18/1 with Sky Bet)
ALSO LOOK OUT FOR: 35 or extra match pictures (6/1 with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm, (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)
It’s exhausting to foresee something however a drab, bitty and finally low-scoring encounter. Both groups are expertly organised in defence but will not be providing a lot going ahead.
That has not stopped West Ham choosing up factors over the festive interval with gritty attracts towards Southampton and Brighton and a fair grittier win at Everton. I’m not certain their present run is sustainable although with the efficiency towards Stockport within the FA Cup sending out warning lights that issues is perhaps about to flip for David Moyes. They created an xG of simply 0.85 in that one with the one objective coming through a set-piece to get them out of an embarrassing state of affairs having performed a full-strength workforce.
Meanwhile, Burnley are actually again to their greatest, but the markets don’t appear to agree. Even on this one they’re being priced up like a relegation-threatened aspect when actually Sean Dyche’s males are mid-table materials. An away win at simply under 4/1 is worth a look. It can also be related that Burnley have gained every of final three conferences, with out conceding.
Goals stay a downside for Dyche although, scoring simply 9 objectives all season they usually have scored greater than as soon as in simply one among their final 15 Premier League video games. But there was shoots of sunshine in that regard when assessing their anticipated objectives information which has them registering a season complete of 15.9 objectives scored pointing to a slight underperformance in entrance of objective for the standard of probabilities they create. I’m completely happy to again them right here.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1 (9/1 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Chelsea, Saturday 5.30pm, stay on Sky Sports
Call me a hipster if you happen to dare, however I used to be raving about Fulham earlier than all of the cool youngsters jumped on the bandwagon after their 1-1 draw with Tottenham. But like with many mainstream opinions, Scott Parker’s workforce are at risk of changing into barely overhyped now. Yes, they have been fluid and knocked the ball round properly at Spurs however all the large probabilities have been created by Jose Mourinho’s workforce, racking up an xG determine of two.58 to Fulham’s 1.08.
Now, 6/1 on a home win here is a tempter as Chelsea’s document away from Stamford Bridge underneath Frank Lampard stays woeful for a top-four challenger and taking up Chelsea has confirmed a worthwhile angle. However, it is actually troublesome to see how Fulham, who’ve solely gained two of their final 16 Premier League video games, will cease Lampard’s aspect down the flanks; an space the place Tottenham completely battered them on Wednesday evening.
Ben Chilwell, Reece James, a rejuvenated Callum Hudson-Odoi and Christian Pulisic are dynamite on the overload and possess the standard to critically damage Fulham. Whoever performs centre-forward for Chelsea ought to get probabilities to feast on.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2 (6/1 with Sky Bet)
Leicester vs Southampton, Saturday 8pm
Why are Southampton such a huge worth right here? It’s 7/2 for the away win. Am I lacking one thing?
Leicester notoriously wrestle when requested to dictate video games at residence, shedding to Fulham, Aston Villa, West Ham and Everton already this season. Brendan Rodgers’ males have gained 12 extra factors away than at the King Power this season while Saints have misplaced simply two of their final 15 matches and simply one among their final 13 away video games.
I can’t have a Leicester win right here.
Yes, Danny Ings is out with Covid-19 however Sir Ralph has managed simply nice with out him in 5 video games this season, shedding simply a type of. Hasenhuttl is a supervisor that doesn’t depend on people, his emphasis is on workforce cohesion with everybody understanding their roles. Ings is the cherry on the highest however the tasty elements that knit the Saints aspect collectively stay intact.
The motive for the market drift on Saints may very well be to do with their attacking output efficiency numbers over the festive interval. Since beating Sheffield United on December 13, Saints have solely scored twice with a mixed xG determine of three.2 – the second lowest within the division for that interval. However, they’ve performed Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool in that run, so I’m completely happy to let these declining numbers slide in the interim. It’s merely obtained to be an away win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2 (12/1 with Sky Bet)
Sheffield United vs Tottenham, Sunday 2.05pm, stay on Sky Sports
Despite having no affinity in any way for Sheffield United, even I afforded a fist-pump of their course after their 1-0 win over Newcastle. It could be a footballing disaster in the event that they break Derby’s document for the fewest factors in season (11) – we should struggle towards that. Interestingly, Derby’s solely win that season was 1-0 at residence to Newcastle. Spooky.
It was a victory for long-term efficiency information that showcased that the Blades stay a well-equipped aspect on their day and likewise a victory for being a good bloke within the case of Chris Wilder.
I’m sure they are going to present a stern take a look at for Tottenham, too. However, it is troublesome to see Wilder’s workforce creating sufficient huge probabilities to take a look at what’s often a watertight Spurs defence, who’ve conceded simply 16 objectives – solely Man City (13) have conceded fewer.
The Blades have misplaced 11 video games by one objective whereas Spurs have overwhelmed each Burnley and West Brom by a solitary objective on the street this season. That will do once more for Jose Mourinho, who will again his defence to hold out some of the toothless assaults in Premier League historical past. It could be Spurs’ first win at Bramall Lane since 1975 – a run of seven video games with out a win there.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1 (6/1 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, stay on Sky Sports Premier League
Big match alert.
In conditions like this, attempting to not get carried away with the pre-match hullabaloo when it comes to discovering clever betting angles is vital. This one has the hallmarks of being a cagey affair.
Liverpool have the perfect Premier League residence document this season – and are unbeaten of their final 67 league matches at Anfield – whereas Man Utd have the perfect away document within the division. So, what occurs when an immovable object meets a power of nature? Stalemate, that is what.
Surely “don’t lose” would be the message somewhat than going all out to win it for each groups, particularly within the Manchester United dressing room. A draw shall be a enormous consequence for them. If the sport will get to 60-65 minutes and is all sq., we may see a repeat of what occurred in Man City vs Liverpool, the place each have been completely happy with a level. I shall be backing the draw.
There is worth to be had elsewhere although. One space of soccer betting I’ve discovered to be fairly worthwhile in recent times is the playing cards markets. The stats will let you know that Scott McTominay has but to be booked this season however he is made 22 fouls, averaging over 2.2 fouls per 90 minutes. Unsurprisingly, he has made essentially the most fouls with out being booked of any present Premier League participant this season. If you stretch it again to final season he has now on a run of 31 fouls with out a card since being booked after 24 seconds on Boxing Day in 2019 vs Newcastle – which is the quickest reserving since Opta began collating information in 2006.
No doubt he shall be tasked with breaking apart Liverpool’s play in midfield this weekend in what is probably going to be a niggly encounter. Liverpool at all times pack loads of physicality and punch of their midfield and 12 opposition central midfielders have been booked vs Liverpool of their final 14 Premier League video games. At 12/1 McTominay is worth an interest to get carded first, or those who can deal with backing quick costs on this market ought to look at the 23/10 for him to be carded anytime.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1 (6/1 with Sky Bet)
ALSO LOOK OUT FOR: Scott McTominay to decide up the primary card (12/1 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 7.15pm, stay on Sky Sports
While the world and his spouse get giddy over Liverpool and Manchester United enjoying out a “title decider”, Manchester City and Pep Guardiola are quietly going about their enterprise. They are out of their early-season struggles and are 4/6 with Sky Bet to win their third title in 4 seasons.
Stylistically, it is extra bruising than lovely this time round at City nevertheless it’s taken them to eight video games unbeaten within the Premier League, profitable six of these. Conceding simply three objectives of their final 14 video games in all competitions is sort of frankly a ridiculous document.
Palace are unbeaten of their final two visits to the Etihad Stadium although, scoring 5 occasions in these matches. Roy Hodgson’s sit and counter strategy may work once more – however they merely should get the primary objective. I simply can’t see it.
A City win to nil looks the smart play at 4/5 rather than taking the 1/7 for a home win. You may additionally throw in Kevin De Bruyne to score first at 4/1.
With no central striker being most popular at the second by Guardiola, De Bruyne is being requested to drive into the field at each alternative and he has registered 10 pictures in his two Premier League video games enjoying that position, scoring at Chelsea and lacking two huge probabilities within the win over Brighton. I’m assuming he can even regain penalty duties after Raheem Sterling’s miss on Wednesday, too. He seems to be good for a objective.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (6/1 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Newcastle, Monday Night Football 8pm, stay on Sky Sports Premier League
We are in a unusual place with Newcastle the place some followers have to be wanting this present winless streak to proceed so as to set off a change of administration. As lengthy as Newcastle keep up, then is there actually a lot flawed with that when it comes to long-term prospects for the membership? It’s a debate for an additional day once we are all again within the pubs.
The tide is definitely beginning to activate Steve Bruce, which implies one factor. Newcastle will begin choosing up outcomes.
The wily previous fox of a boss is a grasp at pulling a consequence out of someplace to flip the tide again in his favour. Since taking the job he has by no means gone longer than a run of six video games with out a win – this sport would be the seventh in that winless streak. At 7/1 for an away win, I’m happy to put faith in the Toon.
Arsenal have been again to their ponderous selves on Monday. Playing Newcastle principally mirrors enjoying Crystal Palace and with Mikel Arteta unlikely to change their type, it may very well be one other irritating night when it comes to likelihood creation.
The Gunners have gained solely one among their final seven Premier League video games at The Emirates, taking simply 5 factors from the final 21 out there. It was simply over a week in the past that Newcastle have been holding Arteta’s workforce to a 0-0 within the FA Cup after 90 minutes the place Andy Carroll, sure, Andy Carroll, offered the Toon with a huge attacking weapon. I would really like to see him play in a entrance two with Callum Wilson, who stays one of many clear positives when it comes to Bruce’s aspect.
At the costs, it is an away win for me.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1 (16/1 with Sky Bet)