In recent weeks, the geopolitical landscape surrounding energy supplies has shifted dramatically, particularly due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Just before the key developments unfolded, India was heavily reliant on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Qatar, which accounted for approximately 40% of its total LNG supply. However, the situation took a turn for the worse when Iranian attacks targeted Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, resulting in significant damage to the facility.

On October 1, 2023, reports emerged that the attacks had caused a staggering 17% of Qatar’s LNG production capacity to be sidelined for an estimated 3 to 5 years, as confirmed by QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi. This disruption not only affects Qatar but also has far-reaching implications for countries like India, which is already vulnerable due to its heavy dependence on imported energy.

The situation worsened as the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route for oil and gas shipments, became nearly impassable due to ongoing Iranian hostilities. This strait is vital for India, as it transits 90% of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports. Furthermore, the attacks have also impacted around 40% to 50% of India’s crude oil imports, raising alarm bells in New Delhi.

As the news of the LNG outage spread, European gas prices surged by 35%, reflecting the global market’s reaction to the supply disruption. Brent crude prices briefly rose more than 10%, surpassing $119 per barrel, indicating the heightened volatility in energy markets. Such price fluctuations pose a significant challenge for countries like India, which imports 85% to 90% of its oil, making it particularly susceptible to disruptions in the Middle East.

In response to the crisis, India has begun actively seeking alternative sources for LNG and LPG to mitigate the impact of the supply disruptions. According to Sujata Sharma, an energy analyst, “We are trying to pick up the cargoes from other sources.” This proactive approach is essential as the damage to Ras Laffan has created a multi-year supply loss in the LNG market, further complicating India’s energy security.

Moreover, India’s domestic LPG production from refineries has seen a notable increase of about 36% as the country attempts to bolster its energy independence amid these challenges. However, experts warn that if the disruption through the Strait of Hormuz persists, Indian buyers may need to procure higher-priced spot cargoes or reduce consumption altogether, as noted by analyst Sumit Ritolia.

The situation remains fluid, and the implications of these developments are significant for all parties involved. As Randhir Jaiswal, an Indian official, stated, “India had previously called for the avoidance of targeting civilian infrastructure, including energy infrastructure, across the region.” The ongoing conflict not only threatens energy supplies but also raises questions about the stability of global energy markets.

As of now, the full extent of the damage and the timeline for recovery remains uncertain, with repairs to the Ras Laffan facility expected to take several years. The international community is closely monitoring the situation, as the ramifications of these events will likely influence energy policies and market dynamics for years to come.

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The ongoing crisis in the Middle East has raised a crucial question: how will it impact gas prices in India? The answer is evident as the country grapples with rising costs and supply shortages.

As of March 11, 2026, the price of a 14.2 kg non-subsidised LPG cylinder in Delhi stands at ₹913.00, following a ₹60 increase on March 7. This surge is primarily attributed to the fact that India imports around 60 percent of its total LPG demand, predominantly from the Middle East.

Recent events have exacerbated the situation. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy transit corridor, is facing severe disruptions due to regional tensions, which have tightened supplies and heightened security risks for tanker movements.

Moreover, Qatar has halted LNG production amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia, further straining India’s gas supply. The impact of these disruptions is evident in the stock market, where shares of Adani Total Gas have surged by 13.08 percent, reflecting the rising prices for industrial clients.

Gas-related stocks, including Gujarat Gas, have also rallied sharply, with increases of up to 15 percent. This market response underscores the interconnectedness of global energy supply chains and the immediate effects of geopolitical instability.

In addition to domestic LPG price hikes, commercial LPG prices have risen by ₹114.5. The broader implications of these increases are significant, as they affect not only household budgets but also the operational costs for businesses reliant on gas.

European natural gas prices surged nearly 40% last week following Qatar Energy’s production halt, illustrating the global ripple effects of the Middle East crisis on energy markets.

As India continues to rely heavily on imports to meet its cooking gas needs, the situation remains precarious. The conflict in the Middle East has started to significantly affect India’s energy market, particularly natural gas and LPG supplies.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term implications of these developments, but the immediate future of gas prices in India appears uncertain as the situation evolves.

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“Yes, yes, definitely,” stated Alma Newell, reflecting the growing concern over the rising natural gas prices influenced by recent geopolitical tensions. The cost of natural gas in the spot market has risen dramatically, reaching $25.40 per million British thermal units (mbtu), a multi-fold increase attributed to the ongoing US-Israel-Iran tensions.

In January, India’s total consumption of natural gas was recorded at 5,252 million metric standard cubic metres (MMSCM), with approximately 54% of this consumption met through liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. The situation is further complicated as more than 50% of India’s imported LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial transit point that has faced disruptions due to the current geopolitical climate.

GAIL (India) Ltd has reported that its long-term supplier, Petronet LNG Limited (PLL), has issued a force majeure notice, indicating potential supply issues. “GAIL is currently assessing the situation with respect to any supply curtailment that may need to be imposed on its downstream customers,” a company spokesperson noted, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding future natural gas availability.

The ramifications of these developments extend beyond natural gas, as the price of crude oil has also seen a significant increase. The price rose from about $67 per barrel before the war began on February 28 to nearly $97 recently. Gregory Brew commented, “I think the current price increase in oil suggests the US will see $3.50 to $4 gasoline by next week, and $5 diesel this week,” indicating a broader impact on energy prices.

In response to the rising costs, India’s oil marketing companies have raised liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices by an average of Rs 60 per cylinder. This increase reflects the tightening supply chain and the need to adjust to the escalating costs of energy resources.

The disruptions caused by the war include the shuttering of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key node in global transit and shipping. This has raised alarms among energy-dependent nations, particularly India, which relies heavily on imported LNG to meet its energy needs.

As the situation evolves, stakeholders in the energy sector are closely monitoring developments. The potential for further price increases looms as geopolitical tensions continue to affect supply chains and market dynamics. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term impacts on natural gas prices and availability in the coming months.

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